BRAZORIA COUNTY, Texas — Tropical Storm Bertha is moving west across the northern Gulf and could bring scattered rain, gusty coastal winds, elevated seas and an increased risk of dangerous rip currents to portions of Brazoria County later this week.
However, forecasters currently expect the storm to weaken considerably before reaching Southeast Texas, and significant local impacts are not anticipated at this time.
As of the National Hurricane Center’s 10 p.m. advisory Tuesday, July 21, Bertha was located approximately 85 miles east-northeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving west at approximately 6 mph.
Bertha is expected to continue moving generally westward near or along the northern Gulf Coast through Friday. Forecasters said weakening should begin Wednesday as the storm encounters stronger wind shear, drier air and interaction with land.
What Brazoria County Could Experience
The National Weather Service’s Houston-Galveston office said Bertha could approach the Upper Texas Coast as a weak tropical depression sometime late Thursday into Friday morning—provided the system remains organized long enough to reach the area.
Forecasters said most of Bertha’s strongest thunderstorms and heaviest rain have remained south of its center. That uneven structure is expected to keep much of the storm’s rainfall offshore as it moves west.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could still develop across Brazoria County, with the highest chances expected near the coast and over Gulf waters. Communities including Freeport, Surfside Beach and Quintana may have a greater chance of seeing tropical moisture than inland portions of the county.
The National Weather Service’s reasonable worst-case rainfall estimate is approximately one-half to four-fifths of an inch south of Interstate 10. The probability of receiving more than one inch of rain is currently around 10% near the barrier islands and less than 5% across most inland areas.
Those estimates could change depending on whether Bertha holds together, weakens more quickly or shifts farther north or south.
Gusty Winds and Higher Seas Possible
Gusty winds could develop along the immediate Brazoria County coast and over nearby Gulf waters Thursday into Friday.
The probability of sustained tropical-storm-force winds reaching inland portions of Southeast Texas currently remains below 5%, according to the National Weather Service. Bertha is also forecast to weaken into a tropical depression before reaching local coastal waters.
While widespread damaging winds are not expected, coastal residents may want to secure lightweight outdoor items such as umbrellas, trash cans, decorations and patio furniture before conditions begin changing.
Seas could build to approximately six feet, and Small Craft Advisories may eventually be issued for portions of the Upper Texas Coast. Boaters and people planning offshore trips should check the latest marine forecast before leaving shore.
Increased Rip-Current Danger at Area Beaches
One of Bertha’s most likely local effects will be an increased risk of rip currents along Brazoria County beaches.
Visitors to Surfside Beach, Quintana Beach and other coastal locations should remain alert for beach warning flags and avoid entering rough water. Rip currents can quickly pull swimmers away from shore, even when weather conditions on the beach appear relatively calm.
Rougher surf and stronger currents may arrive before the center of the system reaches the western Gulf.
No Tropical Storm Watch for Brazoria County
As of the 10 p.m. Tuesday advisory, Brazoria County was not under a tropical storm watch or warning.
A Tropical Storm Warning extended from the Bay and Gulf county line in Florida westward to Morgan City, Louisiana, including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A Tropical Storm Watch extended west from Morgan City to Cameron, Louisiana.
Forecasters still encouraged residents along the Upper Texas Coast to monitor Bertha because the storm’s eventual track and intensity remain uncertain.
Significant Coastal Flooding Not Currently Expected
Current tide projections do not indicate significant coastal flooding for Brazoria County.
Forecasters expect high tides to reach approximately two to two-and-a-half feet above mean lower low water. Minor coastal flooding in the region typically begins closer to three-and-a-half feet.
Conditions could still vary in low-lying areas, particularly if strong thunderstorms arrive near high tide.
Extreme Heat Comes Before Bertha
Before Bertha begins influencing the area, Brazoria County residents will face another weather concern: dangerous heat.
An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect across Southeast Texas from 11 a.m. until 8 p.m. Wednesday. High temperatures are expected to range from 99 to 104 degrees, with heat-index readings potentially reaching 115 degrees.
Residents should drink plenty of water, limit strenuous outdoor activity during the hottest part of the day and check on children, older adults and anyone without dependable air conditioning.
Residents Should Continue Monitoring Forecast
Bertha’s forecast could change as the storm moves along the northern Gulf Coast and begins interacting with Louisiana.
Brazoria County residents should continue monitoring official updates through the National Hurricane Center, the National Weather Service Houston-Galveston office and local emergency management officials.
Anyone planning to visit the beach, travel offshore or work near the coast Thursday or Friday should check conditions again before leaving.
This article is based on forecast information available as of 10 p.m. Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Gulf Coast Times will update this report if watches, warnings or significant forecast changes are announced for Brazoria County.