BRAZORIA COUNTY, Texas — Residents across Brazoria County are being urged to keep an eye on the weather as Tropical Depression Five moves toward the Upper Texas Coast, bringing an increasing threat of heavy rain and localized flooding.
A Flood Watch is in effect from 1 a.m. Tuesday through 7 a.m. Wednesday for communities across Brazoria County, including Freeport, Surfside Beach, Lake Jackson, Angleton, Brazoria and Pearland.
As of the National Hurricane Center's 4 p.m. Monday advisory, Tropical Depression Five was about 185 miles southeast of Port Arthur with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The system was moving west-northwest at 6 mph and was expected to strengthen into a tropical storm Monday evening.
The center is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast Tuesday before moving inland over Southeast Texas Tuesday night.
Heavy Rain Is the Main Brazoria County Concern
For Brazoria County, the most immediate concern is currently rainfall and flooding, rather than a direct hit from tropical-storm-force winds.
The National Hurricane Center says portions of the Upper Texas Coast and east-central Texas could receive 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated totals as high as 9 inches. That rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in low-lying and urban areas, with some river flooding also possible.
Those totals cover a broad region and do not mean every part of Brazoria County will receive 3 to 6 inches.
Individual city forecasts are generally lower, but thunderstorms and tropical rain bands can produce much heavier rainfall in isolated locations.
Freeport and Surfside Beach
Freeport has a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, with the National Weather Service warning that higher rainfall amounts are possible beneath thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall is also possible Tuesday night.
Surfside Beach also has a 60% chance of rain Tuesday, followed by additional thunderstorm chances Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Both communities are under the Flood Watch.
Despite their coastal locations, Brazoria County is not currently included in the Tropical Storm Warning, which begins at Port Bolivar and extends east into Louisiana. The Storm Surge Watch also begins farther east at High Island.
Lake Jackson, Clute and Central Brazoria County
Lake Jackson, Clute and nearby communities should also prepare for periods of showers and thunderstorms as moisture from the tropical system spreads across Southeast Texas.
The Lake Jackson area is under the same Flood Watch, with the greatest concern being rainfall accumulating quickly in streets, low-lying locations and areas with poor drainage.
Residents should be especially cautious if heavy rain develops during the morning or evening commute.
Angleton and Brazoria
Central and western portions of the county are also included in the Flood Watch.
Angleton is expected to see showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, while the City of Brazoria's forecast also calls for likely thunderstorms as the system approaches.
Even areas farther west from the coast could experience localized flooding if heavier rain bands repeatedly move over the same location.
Pearland Could See Heavier Rain
Northern Brazoria County may also see significant rainfall.
Pearland has a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, with the National Weather Service forecast calling for roughly 1.2 to 1.6 inches of new rainfall during the day, with higher totals possible where storms become heavier.
Pearland is also included in the Flood Watch through Wednesday morning.
No Tropical Storm Warning for Brazoria County — For Now
As of Monday afternoon, the Tropical Storm Warning begins at Port Bolivar, east of Brazoria County.
The National Hurricane Center expects tropical storm conditions along the warned portion of the coast by Tuesday morning.
That means residents should distinguish between two different threats: Brazoria County is currently under a Flood Watch, but it is not currently under a Tropical Storm Warning.
Forecasts, watches and warnings can change quickly as the system develops and its track becomes clearer.
What Residents Should Watch
Residents should monitor official forecasts through Monday night and Tuesday, particularly for any changes to the storm track or new flood, wind or coastal warnings.
Motorists should also avoid driving through flooded roads. Water covering a roadway can be deeper or moving faster than it appears.
For now, Brazoria County's biggest concern appears to be bands of tropical rain capable of producing localized flash flooding Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Gulf Coast Times will continue monitoring Tropical Depression Five and update residents if watches, warnings or the expected impacts to Brazoria County change.